Demographics of India are amazingly diverse. The population of India is approximately 1.13 billion people (estimate for March 10, 2008) and comprises of approximately one-sixth of the world's population. Pertaining to India’s approximately 2000 ethnic groups and every major religion represented, as are four major families of languages (Indo-European, Dravidian, Austro-Asiatic and Tibeto-Burman languages). The complexity is lent by the great variation that occurs across the population on social parameters such as income and education.

India holds about 2.4% of the world’s land area and supports over 17.5% of the world’s population. India has comparably more area than many other countries expect a very few example such as United States, and more water than any other country except Canada and United States. According to the census figure of 2001, 72.22% of the people live in more than 550,000 villages, and the remainder in 5161 (census 2001) towns and cities.

According to the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), the next half century will see varied swings in population sizes. The organization says that at present about 99% of all population increase is a result of developing and under-developed countries. Additionally, India is expected to grow from 1.08bn to 1.63bn people, overtaking China, which is forecast to reach 1.44bn from 1.3bn currently. However, US maintain its position on number three according to the report, growing from 420m from 294m people.

Over here the question arises, what happened to the population policy of India? Why does it failed and what are the reasons that resulted in this mammoth population explosion in India? Following are some findings that may answer these questions:

Focus on family planning ignored other influences on birthrate- As per many health specialists in India, Population policy is more than just family planning. There are several “macro-economic forces shaping the enabling conditions necessary for health and family planning”. In compliance with the National Population Policy, 2000, it is important to understand how are the issues of livelihood, poverty, inequality, hunger and ill health reflected in NPP?

Better Health- People had long life due to improved nutrition and the deathrate declined faster as compared to the birthrate did. Similarly, life expectancy at birth rose from 32 in 1947 to 63 in 1998. The Infant Mortality Rate fell from 200/1,000 live births in the mid-1940s to 72/1,000 in 1998.

High infant mortality rate- Although the IMR has almost reduced to 50% in past 50 years, it is still significantly higher in developed countries as well as countries like Sri Lanka, Cuba and China. Several couples have large families as insurance against multiple infant and child deaths.

Some states did better- The population planning policy got success in states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where fertility has dropped sharply (TFR 1.8, or below replacement level, in Kerala, and 2.2 in Tamil Nadu). On the otherhand states such as Uttar Pradesh (TFR 5.1), Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan (4.6) and Bihar (4.4) had high growth rates.

A built-in impetus- As per the figures thirty six percent of the population is in the reproductive age group and obviously this ratio is going to go up before it comes down. Even if the people in these families have less number of members, the sheer numbers of next generation will result in further swelling of the population before it starts shrinking in future.

Unmet need for contraception- National Population Policy 2000 notes that only 44% of India’s 168 million couples in the reproductive age group use effective contraception solutions. Large proportion of remaining people may require contraception but do not have access to it. Reproductive health and basic health infrastructure and allied services are often unsuccessful in reaching villages.

Child marriages- One out of two girls marry before they turn 18, which is the minimum legal age of marriage and many of them start childbearing almost immediately, along with second and third children following at intervals of less than 24 months- which in turn reduces fetus chances of survival.

Early marriages force girls to leave school early, just after 5th grade and they are forced by their in-laws to start their families soon after that. They live in poor health and economic condition, where their goal is to survive.

Economics is not the ideal answer to the problem, India supports the idea as we have one of the world’s best performing economies yet our family planning program has turned out to be a total failure. Additionally Global warming, the ozone holes, rain forest destruction, the "greenhouse effect", pollution, weather breakdown, and natural disasters are only symptoms of this already deadly giant.

Although, even the developed countries are overpopulated, but India lags behind in terms of education, as only half the population is literate. The reason behind this condition of third world countries is because they have no funding for birth control.







 

Now-a-days no meeting on India’s present condition seems complete without coming to the topic of “demographic dividend”. The question here arises is, what exactly is this demographic dividend. The core idea behind this is straightforward. India’s population in the year 2004, was around 1,080 million of whom 672 million people were in the age group of 15 to 64 years. This is treated as the “working age population”. Since people not falling in this age group are very few people, it is reasonable to think of the remainder which happens to be around 408 million people as the “dependent population”.

Nation’s dependency ratio is the ratio of dependent population to the working age population. In case of India this ratio happens to be 0.6. With this figure, India is not too different from developing countries such as Bangladesh’s dependency ratio which is 0.7, Pakistan’s ratio as 0.8 and Brazil with 0.5. The difference with India is the prediction that it will see a sharp decline in this ratio in next 30 years or so. This is what constitutes the demographic dividend of India.

India’s fertility rate which is defined as the average number of children a woman expects in her life time was 3.8 in the year 1990. This figure has decreased to 2.9 today and is expected to fall more in the next few years. With the high fertility rate of Indian females earlier, today India has a sizeable number of people in the age group of 0-15 years.

Advantages of Demography

Since the fertility is falling, it is expected that after about 10-15 years down the road, this bulge of young people would have moved into the working-age category. And since that time, the relative number of children will fall and therefore the dependency ratio in India will become low. It is expected that in 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years, compared to 37 for China, 48 for Japan and by 2030, India’s dependency ratio would be over 0.4. All this can bestow numerous benefits to India.

First and the foremost benefit would be the rise in relative number of bread-winners. Moreover, with fewer children being born, more women will join the work force and so this further improves the bread-winners ratio. The more indirect but essential advantage for Indian economy is that this effect can boost the savings. Now even women can work with few children being born. Human beings save most during the working years of their lives, when they are children they consume more and same is the case during their old age. This directly associates the decline in nation’s dependency ratio to the average savings’ rate.

As per the percentage of GDP, India’s saving rate has been rising since 2003. Today it stands at 33% which is comparable to the Asian super-performers, all of whom save at above 30%, with China saving at around 40% rates. The saving’s growth is based on the improvement shown by government in fiscal health and a sharp rise in corporate savings. And in case these factors disappear, the decline in the dependency ratio would enable India to hold its saving and investment rate above the 30% for next 25 years.

Our theory of demographic advantage has been challenged and so it can be evaluated this in reality by looking at the actual experience of other nations. The most prominent example of economic growth is being stimulated by demography is the case of Ireland. Ireland’s legalization for the utilization of contraception in 1979 resulted in the decline of birth rate from 22 (per 1000 population) in 1980 to 13 in 1994 that caused a rapid decline in dependency ratio.

As per the expectations of researchers, India will get benefit from higher savings and investment rates and this will continue to fire India’s high growth rate. In addition to this, much depends on how the nation executes on primary and secondary education in order to ensure how larger working age is an educated lot and the manufacturing sector which creates job opportunities for labor force.

Pertaining to the fact that demographic dividend is the population lying in working-age category; it is up to nation’s interest to reap as much as profit possible from the dividend so that it is robust enough for future safeguard.

 

President John F. Kennedy was once asked the difference between the Atlas space launch vehicle that brought John Glenn into orbit and the Atlas missile targeting Soviet Union. His answer was “Attitude”. The established path to a space launch capability for China, France, Soviet Union, the United Kingdom and United States was to adapt a ballistic missile similar to space launch vehicle.

India turned the process thereby adapting the space launch vehicle as a ballistic missile. India adapted the SLV-3 space launch vehicle, to become the Agni medium range ballistic missile. In accordance with India’s practice of describing nuclear and missile programs as civilian until their military character cannot be denied, India originally claimed that Agni was a “technology demonstrator”. The Agni program comprises of three missiles with approximately 700, 2,000, and 3,000 kilometers ranges.

For about two decades, reports show that India is sought to use a similar tactic to develop an ICBM that is officially begun and commonly known as Surya and sometimes Agni IV. Reports depict that Surya program will result in several different missiles with ranges from 5,000 to 20,000 kilo meters. Surya is claimed to be having an option of a nuclear payload which might consist of multiple nuclear warheads. Going by the reports, it suggests that Surya will be a three-stage missile with first two stages derived from PSLV’s solid-fuel rockets.

India attained the solid-fuel technology for SLV-3 and the PSLV from the United States in the year 1960. India is supposed to be planning for the third stage of Surya to utilize liquid fuel and to be derived either from the Viking rocket technology supplied by France in the 1980s or from a more powerful, Russian-supplied cryogenic upper stage for the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), which is an alteration of the PSLV.

In case Surya utilizes PSLV rocket motors, as is most frequently reported, it will be an enormous rocket with solid-fuel stages 2.8 meters (about nine feet) in diameter and a total weight of up to 275 metric tons.  This would make it by far the largest ICBM in the world along with a launch weight of about 3 times as compared to the largest US or Russian ICBMs.

It appears to be no literature on Indian plans to conceal the launch site of Surya, which would be a difficult task due to its heavy weight and size. In case cryogenic third stage is utilized, then the launch process will become lengthy, thereby making it the first-strike weapon and could not survive in a conflict. Certainly, Surya’s threatening nature and its pre-launch vulnerability makes it a candidate to reckon with in the crisis. In strategic theory, this led to “crisis instability”, the increased incentive for crisis to lead to strategic attacks due to each side’s expense on striking first. A report of a mobile ICBM based on compilation of PSLV and Agni technology making more military sense and as described below it entails other serious concerns.

Why India wants Surya:

•    The 5,000 kilometer Surya-1 might overlap the range of reported 5,000 kilometer upgrade of the Agni missile with its larger payload, ability to carry thermonuclear warhead or even multiple warheads. Perhaps India has no reason to require the missile for utilization against Pakistan. Arguably this is appropriate for military operations against distant targets in China, as the range of New Delhi to Beijing is 3,900 kilometers; the range from New Delhi to Shanghai is 4,400 kilometers; and the range from Mumbai to Shanghai is 5,100 kilometers.

•    A 8,000-12,000 km Surya-2 happens to be excessive for use against China; even though, distance from New Delhi to London is 6,800 kilometers; to Madrid, 7,400 kilometers; to Seattle, 11,500 kilometers; and to Washington, D.C., 12,000 kilometers.

•    20,000 km range Surya-3 could strike at any point of Earth.

India cited two major reasons for acquisition of ICBM: To establish India as a world power and enable country’s defense to deal with “high tech aggression” of the type demonstrated in the wars with Iraq. Since there is no obvious reason for India to want a military capability against Europe, but the target for Indian ICBM the United States. The reported 12,000-kilometer Surya-2 range is customized to target United States.



 

Parents today, dream of their children to pursue civil services and become an IAS officer. Civil services have been seen as an illustrious career where Indian youth wonders to one’s self-esteem and could accelerate the family repute in the society. Ever since India’s independence, the picture has not changed much and why it should be, when there are thousands of aspirants even today who are burning the mid-night oil to make it through the hallowed corridors of bureaucracy. The number of aspirants who are checking their luck in this hall of fame has been growing immensely.







Civil services examination has emerged as a sign of repute and lack of information about the same could be hazardous for any of the students. For those who have even the minutest doubt must seek for the help of experienced counselors. For example- Civil services examination poses a restriction of 4 attempts for General category and 7 attempts for OBC; however SC/ST are subjected to no restriction as far as attempting the examination is considered. Physically challenged candidates are not subjected to any relaxation until and unless they belong to SC/ST category. Talking of reservation, there are some backward category candidates who are included in the OBC list of states but not in the Central list of OBCs. These aspirants are not considered eligible for any concession.







As we all know, there are lakhs of candidates who apply to appear in the preliminary examination but there are only a few thousands who actually appear in the examination. There are many candidates who worry whether this will be counted as an attempt or no. But the fact is it will not be considered as an “attempt” only if he/she has not attempted even a single paper in the preliminary examination. India is a vast country and it is not possible for all aspirants to pursue their graduation from regular colleges. Hence, Indian government allows those too, who have pursued their graduation from open school/ University, only if the school/University is recognized and the candidate possesses all the educational qualification prescribed for the examination.







In the preliminary as well as the Mains examination, one has to clear the compulsory and optional subjects. Candidates from any stream can give the civil services examination and it is not necessary that they have to choose only those subjects that they studied during their higher secondary exams or at graduation-level. A candidate can choose an optional subject, which he has not studied at graduate/PG level. Also, it is not necessary to take the same optional subject in the Main Exam, which the aspirant opted in the prelims Examination.







Civil services examination offers the freedom to write the exam in English or any one of the Eighth schedule languages, however the students will not be allowed to write different papers in different languages, i.e. they have to choose a single mode of language and write in the same in all the exams. Additionally, he/she will be subjected to speak in the same language during the personal interview session. Usually, one selects the optional subjects that one is familiar with, or has studied till their graduation level. In case they are not comfortable with any subject they must not select the subject for optional examination.







Over here it is to be added that the choice for choosing the optionals is based not only on the interest of the student but also on the study material available in the market. There are many students from science/engineering background who opted for subjects such as history, sociology, anthropology, geography, political science, psychology and public administration since the allied study material can be availed easily from the market. Additionally, it is important to understand, that if your have not gone through the subject since a long time, then it may act as a barrier for cracking technical subject where freshers perform better. Since, the competition is amongst the people who opted for the same subjects, so one needs to top his/her subject to succeed in the examination







Prior to choosing an optional, analyze the syllabus of previous year and the question papers to check the past trends, if you can, get feedback from seniors. So it depends on how much time a students spends as well as their liking of the subjects. Also, it is important to note the overlap in subjects such as sociology and public administration; history and political science etc.